Direct-to-Customer Commerce

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Strategic insights into the direct commerce industry, including ecommerce, direct marketing and related fields

What will likely happen in Q4

Press reports are starting to come out that:

  • retailers are not hiring as many seasonal employees for 2009Q4.
  • merchandise orders for Q4 may be as much as 20 percent lower than in previous years

What can we concluded from these two facts:

  • customer service in retail, brick & mortar stores may reach an all-time low.  There simply won’t be anyone around to help you.  You’ll probably have a hard time just finding someone to take your money.
  • e-commerce sites will gain sales faster than ever before — for multiple reasons:

First, because you can check yourself out and don’t have to rely on finding someone to help you.

Second, retailers will likely make sure inventory for their online store is broad and deep.  Because they can sell to anyone, anywhere at anytime.  Thus, they will more likely sell thru online store inventory than physical store inventory.  Plus, they can replenish inventory for the online store faster than they can to physical stores (at least, in most cases).

Third, buying online is less frustrating and annoying than going to a store.  This will be especially true, because there will be fewer sales discounts in physical stores (due to lower inventories) and fewer people to help (see “First”).

*  *  *  *  *

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Total direct commerce sales (as reported by the Commerce Dept) remains about five percent of retail sales, but direct commerce sales are growing reliably, while total retail sales has been in decline for most of the past 12 months.  The bottom-line:  We will see direct commerce (online & catalog) take a big jump forward in Q4.

That in turn will cause at least a short-term increase in activity during the first half of 2010 by companies who will seek to upgrade their online store, or maybe even finally set one up.

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Filed under: Direct Commerce, Opinion, , , , ,

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