Reflections on Direct-to-Customer Commerce

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Strategic insights into the direct commerce industry, including ecommerce, direct marketing and related fields

Acquisition Spending, Direct Mail on the Rise: Winterberry Report

Acquisition Spending, Direct Mail on the Rise: Winterberry Report.

Interesting market analysis and forecast for 2011 by Bruce Biegel, managing director of Winterberry Group, interviewed in Chief Marketer.

In general, direct and digital marketing are not the dominant advertising channels, as compared to traditional media.  Paper-based direct mail is making a little comeback, expected to rise 5.8% in 2011.

Worth reading the whole piece.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, News, Opinion, , , , , ,

E-Commerce and Retail

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData: Multichannel Wednesday: E-Commerce and Retail.

The link above takes you to an outstanding set of observations about how multi-channel customers behave in the various channels, and how you should adjust your marketing communications based upon the acquisition channel.

Great insights that are worth your attention

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Ideas, Opinion, , , , , ,

Monthly Retail Sales Numbers

The Economics & Statistics Administration released its, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

Retail sales in October 2010 were $373.1 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent from September and an increase of 7.3 percent from October 2009.  Excluding autos, retail sales were $306.1 billion, up 0.4 percent from last month and up 6.0 percent from last year.

Retail sales peaked back in Nov 2007 at $379.4 billion.  So, you can see we’re getting close to a complete recovery from a pure sales point of view.  Retail sales have been growing at a rate of $1-3 billion per month for most of 2010.

However, Electronic and Mail order sales dipped in Dec 2007, after peaking at $17.6 billion.  Sales wobbled up and down in a very narrow window for a number of months, but surged passed the Dec 2007 peak in Aug 2009 and has not looked back.

In Sep 2010 (the most recent monthly report available), Electronic and Mail Order Sales reach $23.3 billion a full 30% higher than Sep 2009.

Direct Commerce is where the action is, but Brick & Mortar retail is still the name of the game.

Direct Commerce constitutes only 6.321% of total retail sales.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, News, Opinion, , , ,

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData – A/B Testing: Here’s An Example

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData – A/B Testing: Here’s An Example.

In the article linked above, Kevin makes a great point — some sales happen without marketing.

Do you know what that percentage is for your business?  Kevin outlines a testing strategy to find out.

It’s worth looking into.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Ideas, , , ,

New Dimensional Weight Factor to Boost Shipping Costs

Here’s a link to an important article in Multichannel Merchant  – New Dimensional Weight Factor to Boost Shipping Costs.

This is a huge change.  The article documents a coming change by FedEx and UPS to reduce the factor used to calculate Dimensional Weights from 194 to 166.  The article explains the calculation, if you’re unfamiliar with it.

This change is important and noteworthy in both the short-term and the long term.  In the short-term, because it will mean an immediate rate increase on many packages.  And it will also increase the percentage of packages to which DIM weights will apply.

In the longer term, it portends a move towards DIM weights becoming the default or de facto method for rating the cost of shipping parcels.  After all, it’s generally accepted that planes and trailers are most likely to fill up space-wise before they fill up weight-wise.  So carriers will make the most money, if they charge based upon DIM Weights.

An example for comparison.  Let’s assume a 3# packaged being shipped to Zone 5 — the generic average parcel bound for a residential address.  Further, let’s assume a parcel 12″ x 12″ x 8″ — not huge, not small.  This parcel calculates to a DIM weight of 5.938 using the 194 factor; 6.94 using the 166 factor.

Here are UPS Ground rates (without accessorial charges, based upon the current rate table):

  • 3# Z5          = $6.24
  • 5.938# Z5 = $7.10 (an increase of 14% over actual weight)
  • 6.94# Z5    = $7.29 (an increase of 17% over actual weight)

This change by FedEx & UPS should result in a lot of work on product packaging, in an effort to reduce parcel sizes.  And it will put increased pressure on “free shipping offers.”

Filed under: Direct Commerce, News, , , , , , ,

Who will be first to publish their catalog for iPad?

Think about a catalog as a book.  Apple allows purchases from within their apps.  So it makes sense that someone will publish their catalog as an app for iPhone and iPad.

Automatic updates via Apple’s book store.

Actually, there are a couple of apps in Apple’s App Store already:  IKEA (UK), Pottery Barn (actually, they have two different ones), SkyMall … and several others which are not recognizable brands.

I wonder how their doing?

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Ideas, , , ,

e-marketing verses p-marketing?

That’s short for electronic marketing verses paper marketing.

I’m raising the question of what is the balance between electronic marketing (in the form of email, etc) and paper-based marketing (in the form of direct mail or catalogs.

As a rule of thumb, I sense a general agreement that response rates from electronic marketing is about 10 percent of similar paper-based marketing efforts.  Obviously some do better; some worse.  Comparisons are difficult.  Because the market segmentation is less strictly enforced for e-marketing efforts — since cost is so minimal, compared to the cost of p-marketing.  Therein lies one of the more significant issues.

When the focus is on acquisition, any new customer is valuable.  So the low cost and similarly low response rates seem to be a non-issue.  However, when attrition rates are considered, part of your strategy must be to maintain and grow the size of the current customer file.  Can you rely on e-marketing efforts alone to meet your customer acquisition goals?  It’s certainly more difficult.

When the focus is on customer files, finding this balance becomes very important, because customer marketing is generally the source for the most profitable sales revenue.  And if response rates for e-marketing are 10 percent of p-marketing, profitability of e-marketing efforts must be about 10 times higher than p-marketing, to maintain profit goals — as sales revenue declines.

How likely is that?

Certainly possible — but not always a likely outcome.

In my view, this calls for more of a balance between these two marketing strategies that I generally see in the marketplace.

Personal anecdote — when I get a paper catalog, I routinely drop it on the reading table where I watch TV.  Then often, while watching/listening to the news (or some other equally mind-numbing program), I flip thru the catalogs.  I never know when something will catch my eye — something I can no longer live without.

I can’t do the same thing with e-marketing — at least not yet.  Maybe when I get an iPad, that will change.  But Apple has only sold a couple of million iPads, so market penetration of iPads is still small.

Several years ago, we heard catalogers talk about the “shelf life” of their catalogs.  That is, how long did a customer let the catalog sit around before they trashed it.  A few days ago I noticed one blogger write about the “half-life” of a marketing promotion.  Both terms get after the same point.

Back to business:

e-marketing seems to require a bulls-eye shot to produce revenue.  While a paper catalog or other p-marketing efforts have the potential for a much longer shelf-life.

We need more balance.  I think it will produce more loyal customers, more revenue, more profits.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Ideas, Opinion, , , , , , ,

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData: 16 Multichannel Marketing Myths

Kevin Hillstrom: MineThatData: 16 Multichannel Marketing Myths.

This is a great post, which you should read in detail.  I picked it up from a consultant friend, Ernie Shell, who blogs at Direct Commerce Systems.  Kevin’s post, in effect, reminds me of how much the direct commerce trade press struggles to report real information, rather than the self-interested sales pitches of companies who will benefit from promoting their view of what builds sales via the direct channels.

Read and learn from Kevin’s post.  It’s great stuff.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Opinion, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

New UPS Rates for 2010

Here’s a link to a summary of the rate changes for 2010 from UPS.  Click here.

Nothing new here, except for the details.  Most of the changes are in the arena of accessorial charges, where it seems that UPS seeks to make most of their profit margin today.  The basic rates seem designed to cover costs.

But I confess, that’s pretty much a shipper’s skepticism.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, News, Opinion, ,

What will likely happen in Q4

Press reports are starting to come out that:

  • retailers are not hiring as many seasonal employees for 2009Q4.
  • merchandise orders for Q4 may be as much as 20 percent lower than in previous years

What can we concluded from these two facts:

  • customer service in retail, brick & mortar stores may reach an all-time low.  There simply won’t be anyone around to help you.  You’ll probably have a hard time just finding someone to take your money.
  • e-commerce sites will gain sales faster than ever before — for multiple reasons:

First, because you can check yourself out and don’t have to rely on finding someone to help you.

Second, retailers will likely make sure inventory for their online store is broad and deep.  Because they can sell to anyone, anywhere at anytime.  Thus, they will more likely sell thru online store inventory than physical store inventory.  Plus, they can replenish inventory for the online store faster than they can to physical stores (at least, in most cases).

Third, buying online is less frustrating and annoying than going to a store.  This will be especially true, because there will be fewer sales discounts in physical stores (due to lower inventories) and fewer people to help (see “First”).

*  *  *  *  *

Now, don’t get me wrong.  Total direct commerce sales (as reported by the Commerce Dept) remains about five percent of retail sales, but direct commerce sales are growing reliably, while total retail sales has been in decline for most of the past 12 months.  The bottom-line:  We will see direct commerce (online & catalog) take a big jump forward in Q4.

That in turn will cause at least a short-term increase in activity during the first half of 2010 by companies who will seek to upgrade their online store, or maybe even finally set one up.

Filed under: Direct Commerce, Opinion, , , , ,

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